Crypto Perps in the US Will Fill the “Offshore” Workaround. Does That Make Europe Over-Cautious?

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: The launch of crypto perpetual futures (perps) by Coinbase, Kraken, and Kalshi in the US following a CFTC policy announcement.
• Who: Key players include Coinbase, Kraken, Kalshi, and the CFTC.
• Why it matters: This development marks a significant shift in the US crypto derivatives market, allowing regulated access to perps and potentially changing the competitive landscape with Europe’s cautious regulatory stance.

§ 02 Key Developments

• Coinbase, Kraken, and Kalshi have begun offering crypto perpetual futures in the US after the CFTC's policy announcement.
• The perps market trading volume reached $61.7 trillion in 2025, a 29% increase from 2024, according to CryptoQuant.
• Kalshi reported offshore perps trading volume exceeded $90 trillion last year, growing from $28 trillion in 2023.
• Decentralized exchanges processed over $1.2 trillion in perps monthly by the end of 2025, with Hyperliquid being a major player.
• The CFTC clarified a case-by-case regulatory review for new perpetual products referencing assets beyond current approved listings.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The US has historically had limited regulated access to crypto perps, with most trading occurring offshore, highlighting a gap in the domestic market.
• The regulatory landscape in Europe is evolving, with the potential classification of perps as CFDs, which would impose significant restrictions compared to the US approach.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• The immediate consequence is the potential for increased trading volume in the US as traders no longer need to rely on offshore platforms.
• Long-term, this may lead to a shift in the global crypto derivatives market, as US regulations adapt to foster innovation while Europe may face challenges attracting trading activity.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Regulatory risks exist, particularly if the CFTC's case-by-case review leads to restrictive measures on new perps.
• Competition from offshore platforms may continue, especially if European regulations limit leverage and trading options significantly.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Key developments to watch include the rollout of perps on Coinbase, Kraken, and Kalshi, and any subsequent regulatory guidance from the CFTC.
• Future announcements from the European Securities and Markets Authority regarding the classification of crypto perps will signal the market's regulatory direction in Europe.