⦿ Executive Snapshot

• What: Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns in the West.
• Who: Key players include Goldman Sachs, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, OECD, US intelligence, and President Trump alongside Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
• Why it matters: The developments in Iran and the economic indicators reflect significant geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties affecting global markets.

⦿ Key Developments

• Goldman Sachs predicts broad dollar strength due to elevated energy costs impacting yields.
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand reports an increase in inflation expectations according to their latest survey.
• OECD supports the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and calls for trade reform in anticipation of upcoming US-China talks.
• US intelligence reports indicate Iran has restored access to missile sites, maintaining a significant portion of its missile stockpile.
• Alaska's Senate has passed a bill recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, exempting them from sales tax.

⦿ Strategic Context

• The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz is crucial, as it remains a vital shipping lane for global energy supplies, making Iran's military capabilities a significant concern for the West.
• Economic indicators such as inflation expectations and currency valuations are critical in shaping monetary policy and influencing investment decisions in the Asia-Pacific region.

⦿ Strategic Implications

• The immediate market consequence includes heightened tensions in energy markets, potentially leading to increased volatility in oil prices and the US dollar.
• Long-term implications could involve shifts in global trade dynamics, particularly if Iran's military posture influences shipping routes and energy supply stability.

⦿ Risks & Constraints

• Potential regulatory risks arise from geopolitical tensions, impacting trade agreements and economic policies in the region.
• Competition in the energy market could intensify as nations respond to Iran's military developments, affecting supply and pricing strategies.

⦿ Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Upcoming US-China meetings to discuss economic reforms and trade relations could signal shifts in market sentiment and investment flows.
• Monitoring inflation data releases and central bank communications will be crucial for anticipating potential shifts in monetary policy across major economies.