Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Goldman Sachs has maintained its TTF gas forecasts while delaying the LNG normalization timeline by one month.
• Who: Goldman Sachs, European natural gas market participants, shipowners, and insurers.
• Why it matters: The delay in LNG normalization and potential price spikes have significant implications for European industrial demand, power prices, and inflation.

§ 02 Key Developments

• Goldman Sachs kept its second-half 2026 TTF price forecast at 41 EUR/MWh, marginally down from 42 EUR/MWh.
• The 2027 TTF price forecast remains unchanged at 30 EUR/MWh.
• LNG flow normalization is now expected by end-July, delayed from end-June.
• If the Hormuz blockade continues, TTF prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh this winter to price out Asian LNG demand.
• Goldman forecasts TTF at 19 EUR/MWh in 2028 and 16 EUR/MWh in 2029, with risks skewed to the downside.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The delay in LNG normalization indicates ongoing geopolitical risks and market fragility, affecting supply and pricing dynamics in Europe.
• Goldman's bearish long-term forecast reflects expectations of increased LNG supply that may alleviate current market tightness, contrasting with the immediate risks posed by geopolitical tensions.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• The immediate consequence of delayed LNG normalization may lead to upward pressure on gas prices, impacting European energy costs and industrial activity.
• Long-term, the anticipated influx of LNG supply could stabilize prices, but uncertainty remains due to geopolitical factors and market responsiveness.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Regulatory and geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Hormuz blockade, could exacerbate market volatility and pricing.
• Dependence on timely recovery of LNG flow and shipping logistics poses execution challenges for market normalization.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Monitoring the status of the Hormuz blockade will be critical, particularly as winter approaches.
• Future developments in LNG supply capacity and geopolitical dynamics will signal the success or failure of current market forecasts.