Why Is Silver Going Down? Price Breaks 200 EMA - Here's How Low It Can Go

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Silver prices have broken below the 200-day exponential moving average, indicating a confirmed downtrend for the first time since April 2025.
• Who: Analysts and traders observing the silver market dynamics, including Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital.
• Why it matters: The decline in silver prices reflects broader macroeconomic pressures, including stronger U.S. jobs data and rising Treasury yields, which increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

§ 02 Key Developments

• Silver is currently trading at $64 per ounce, marking a three-month low and a decline of nearly 6% this week after a 10% drop the previous week.
• The silver price has shed almost half its value from its all-time high of over $120 per ounce in late January 2026.
• A significant technical development occurred as silver broke below the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA), a key indicator of market trends.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The break of the 200 EMA is significant as it marks the end of a bullish trend that lasted over 13 months and saw silver prices rise from around $30 to above $120.
• The current bearish trend is exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as strong U.S. jobs data and rising interest rates, which have historically impacted precious metals negatively.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• Immediate market implications include a potential further decline in silver prices, with key support levels at $61 and $55 being tested in the near term.
• Long-term implications suggest that unless macroeconomic conditions shift, the price could drop to targets as low as $30, effectively erasing the gains made in the recent bull market.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Potential risks include ongoing volatility in macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. job reports and Treasury yields, which could continue to pressure silver prices.
• Competition from yielding assets and a strong U.S. dollar may further diminish silver's appeal to investors, affecting demand and price stability.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Key levels to watch include the $61 and $55 support levels; a failure to hold these could signal further declines.
• Future developments in U.S. monetary policy, particularly any dovish pivots or significant shifts in inflation data, could signal a potential recovery for silver prices.