There's one simple way to tell whether bitcoin has really bottomed. Right now, it hasn't.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Bitcoin's weekly RSI remains below a critical level, indicating it has not yet bottomed.
• Who: Analysts from Material Indicators, specifically Keith Alan.
• Why it matters: The RSI level historically separates bullish and bearish market regimes, impacting trading decisions and market sentiment.

§ 02 Key Developments

• BTC's weekly RSI is currently at 34.00, below the critical threshold of 41.5 that has historically indicated bullish trends.
• A recovery above the 41.5 level is necessary to confirm that a bottom has been made, according to Material Indicators.
• The previous key RSI level to watch is 31.89; falling below this would suggest further price losses ahead.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• Historically, the 41.5 RSI level has consistently separated bull and bear phases in Bitcoin's market cycles, notably during the bull runs from January 2024 to November 2025 and in previous cycles from 2020-21 and 2015-17.
• Bear phases have been characterized by the RSI trading below 41.5, as seen in late 2018 and throughout 2022.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• The current RSI reading suggests continued bearish pressure on Bitcoin, indicating that traders should remain cautious.
• A recovery above the critical RSI level could signal a shift towards bullish sentiment, influencing trading strategies and market dynamics.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Regulatory or market sentiment changes could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory, potentially leading to volatility.
• The dependency on RSI as a trading indicator may lead to false signals if market conditions change unexpectedly.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Watch for Bitcoin's RSI to recover above 41.5 as a signal for a potential market bottom.
• Monitoring the RSI's movement around the 31.89 level will be crucial for predicting further price movements.